Residents continue to flee Massachusetts (primarily to N.H.)
People have always relocated between New Hampshire and Massachusetts, for a variety of reasons. But the flow from Massachusetts into New Hampshire is larger than the outflow, and it has been increasing, an analysis from the Pioneer Institute in Boston shows.
From 2010-2023, New Hampshire gained a net total of 98,879 immigrants from Massachusetts, nearly enough to create another city the size of Manchester. (These figures exclude the pandemic year of 2020.)
Florida was the No. 2 destination for Bay Staters during those years, with the Sunshine State gaining a net 90,372 new residents from Massachusetts.
“In 2023 an estimated 184,534 individuals over a year old left Massachusetts for other states while 145,021 relocated here from other states. That means that on net the Commonwealth lost 39,513 domestic residents,” the Pioneer Institute’s debut Mapping Mass Migration newsletter shows.
“Net out-migration remains elevated, with Massachusetts losing more domestic residents each year from 2021 to 2023 than it did in 2019 (no ACS data is available for 2020). In total, net out-migration has increased exponentially over the last decade; out-migration levels were 10 times greater in 2023 than they were in 2010.”
The Mass. exodus is costing the state billions.
“Massachusetts lost $10.6 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI) to net out-migration between 2020 and 2022, more in those three years alone than the $10 billion it lost from 2012 to 2019,” a separate Pioneer Institute study in November concluded.
“In all, the Commonwealth experienced a four-fold increase in AGI loss from 2012 to 2022,” the study found. “The net loss of taxpayers followed a similar pattern, rising from just over 6,000 in 2012 to more than 26,000 in 2022.”
A University of New Hampshire analysis found that from July of 2023 to July 0f 2024, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island lost more U.S. residents than they gained, but mitigated those losses with “a substantial influx of immigrants.”
In Massachusetts and Connecticut, “immigration provided over 90 percent of their substantial population gain. In Rhode Island, immigration produced the entire population gain,” the UNH Carsey School of Public Policy analysis concluded.
The Pioneer Institute analysis also noted Massachusetts’ foreign immigrant boom.
“While Census Bureau population estimates show an increase of 18,481 people in 2023, that was largely thanks to an influx of 50,000 new foreign immigrants. Without them the state would have lost significant population,” Pioneer noted.
New Hampshire and Maine were the only New England states to have more domestic in-migration than out-migration from July of 2023 to July of 2024, and the only ones to have more domestic than foreign in-migration, the UNH analysis showed.
The cost of living in Massachusetts is a major factor in the state’s population loss, and New Hampshire’s comparatively lower cost of living is a major factor in our state’s attractiveness.
“To make Massachusetts more competitive and attractive to current and potential residents and employers, Massachusetts needs to do more to lower its overall cost structure. Affordability solutions from growing the housing supply, easing tax burdens, and improving public transportation must be considered,” the Pioneer Institute’s December analysis concluded.
Likewise, finding ways to further lower the cost structure in New Hampshire would help keep the state competitive and potentially reduce the outflow of younger adult residents.
That’s why regulatory reforms that allow for more residential and commercial development, more educational competition, and more occupational freedom (including right-to-work and reduced licensing requirements) are so important, along with lowering energy costs.
Lightening regulatory burdens and expanding market competition are proven ways to lower costs and improve service quality, both of which would make the state more attractive to employers and our own young people.
