Starting from a Lower Base
FY2011 Revenues on track to be $54.6M short of budget
With ten of the twelve months of revenue collected for Fiscal Year 2011, revenues are on track to be $54.6 million short of the budgeted amount. The shortfall will not only require action to balance the last budget but also reduces the base used to project revenue growth for the 2012-13 budget currently under consideration.
Revenue collections for the current fiscal year have been falling further behind the estimates used in the last budget. After the April numbers were reported, some analyses have compared revenues to the month-by-month plan. A better assessment uses historical averages to avoid having to make a judgment about the accuracy of the month-by-month projection.
Historical Averaging Methodology
The chart below compares the major categories of state revenue with the historical collection amount. For example, Meals & Rooms Tax revenues were $199.4 million through the first ten months of the year. Historically, the ten-month total for that tax is 81.9% of the final collection. If this total is 81.9% of the final, we are on track to collect $235.4 million which is $9.6 million below the budgeted amount.
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