Charles M. Arlinghaus October 6, 2010 Originally published in the New Hampshire Union Leader After months of discussion about the exact size of the historic deficit we face next year, the news is filled suddenly with reports of a surplus. Did something change or are we just in the middle of election season? The short […]
The slides from Charlie Arlinghaus’s seminar for policymakers on the basics of the state budget, how its organized, where to find information and how to become your own state budget expert.
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Editorial Staffhttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngEditorial Staff2010-09-27 17:50:522018-08-28 05:59:57Understanding and Explaining the New Hampshire State Budget
Just click the Quarter to get started! A public database isn’t just a tool for those of us strange enough to want to pore over budget data. It is the sunshine that disinfects the public square. Knowing that every detail is available, accessible, and searchable means there is no chance that any action, any […]
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Editorial Staffhttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngEditorial Staff2010-06-20 20:42:122018-08-28 19:31:12NHOpenGovt Lets You Google Your Government
Not too long ago we believed in balanced budgets. But that’s all changed. Other states made the tough decisions. We did not. Today the State of New Hampshire is just another failed enterprise hoping the federal government will cut them a check before the debt capsizes that ship.
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Editorial Staffhttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngEditorial Staff2010-06-16 17:48:512018-08-28 05:59:57The Fiscal Collapse of a Once Proud State
Borrowing, transfers, and wishful thinking draw the actual spending cuts and tax increases included in a $295 million budget deal unveiled Tuesday, June 8 at the State House.
House and Senate budget writers have crafted a package that includes nearly $72 million in spending cuts, which doesn’t include an $18.5 million increase in HHS spending. It also contains $4.99 million in tax increases, $51.21 in lapses and transfer among state agencies, $65 million in borrowing, and $112.87 million in speculative revenues that may never be realized.
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Editorial Staffhttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngEditorial Staff2010-04-27 17:43:502018-08-28 05:59:57Mortgaging the Future Can New Hampshire Borrow its way to a Balanced Budget?
Summary: Using a historical projection model, state revenues can be projected to fall $84.8 million short of the amount budgeted to balance spending in the first year of the two-year budget. Revenues in the second year of the budget are built off the first year’s projection plus 2.2% growth over that base. At that rate of growth, revenues would be an additional $86 million out of balance in the second of the two budget years. The combined revenue shortfall of $171 million is the largest component of a budget deficit greater than $250 million that legislators must resolve to balance the state’s finances.
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Editorial Staffhttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngEditorial Staff2010-04-19 17:41:242018-08-28 05:59:57Measuring The Revenue Shortfall Revenue on track to fall $84.8 million short in first half of budget
As noted in last post, gas prices always spike seem to spike in the spring. Why is that?
Well, there are several reasons. The first are the basic laws of supply and demand. With nicer weather, people tend to drive more, increasing the demand and thus the price.
The second is what is called the Seasonal Gas Transition. Taking effect in 1995, amendments to the Clean Air Act of 1990 mandated a different formulation of gasoline for the summer months, colloquially known as the ‘summer blend’ to cut down on pollution. Changing output from summer to winter blends of fuel is not as easy as flipping a switch. Rather, the refinery must often shut down completely in order make the change over.
In addition, the summer blend mandates a lower percentage of Butane in gasoline for environmental reasons. The Butane is replace with more expensive ingredients, further boosting the price.
The summer blend also reduces the mileage per gallon, further increasing demand on gas to travel the same distance.
Perhaps most troubling is that different areas have different blend requirements, meaning that surplus fuel in one area can not be easily shipped to a deficit area, resulting in potential large regional price differences and giving oil companies distorted market power than they otherwise would have. This could be easily solved by doing away with these variations entirely or at the very least parring them down to a more reasonable number.
The actual cost of the summer blend is difficult to calculate and as a result, there are a wide range of opinions as to the exact cost. Estimates range from $.01 to $.15 per gallon.
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Editorial Staffhttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngEditorial Staff2010-03-29 17:47:402018-08-28 19:31:24Why do gas prices spike in the Spring?
As reported by WMUR this morning, gas prices have slightly increased over the past week, after a slight dip.
Looking at data from GasBuddy.com we see some interesting historical trends when it comes to March gas prices.
March historically sees a plateauing in gas prices, followed by a spike that peaks roughly around Memorial Day. The extent of the peaks vary from year to year, over the past 6 years as historical data, with anomalous years removed, NH typically sees a 17% jump in prices.
That being said, there is only so much room for prices to go up. Last year we saw only a 13% run up from a price level of about $3.50/gal, where prices rose right up against the $4/gal mark. This year we are starting at a base of roughly $3.65/gal, and a 13% increase would mean about $4.11/gal.
Conventional wisdom holds that $4.00/gal is the psychological point in which people begin to change their driving habits and most industry experts contend that the oil companies, faced with the loss of sales, will try to keep it under $4.00 a gallon. However there is only so much wiggle room before they would have to sell gas at a loss to keep it at or below $4.00/gal.
On a side note, if you haven’t discovered Gasbuddy.com yet, it is certainly worth a look. Beyond historical data, their primary purpose is to provide real time gas prices. Using something akin to a Wikipedia model, gas prices are updated by users punching in data from their local gas stations. Though these days gas prices can change several times a day, the time of the last update is noted which gives the reader an idea of how the accurate that figure is at that particular moment in time. For example, if the last update is 2 hours old, chances are it is right on the mark, if it is 18 hours old, maybe not. Data older than 36 hours is removed from the list.
It is a great tool if you are looking for the best price on gas whether it be around town, somewhere along your commute or on a trip.
Long story short, gas prices are only going to go up (baring some unforeseen event), so fill up now.
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png00Joshua Elliott-Traficantehttps://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.pngJoshua Elliott-Traficante2010-03-19 15:51:292018-08-28 19:31:39Gas Prices in NH: Top off now
Accounting Gimmicks Can’t Hide State’s Fiscal Disaster
BUDGETCharles M. Arlinghaus October 6, 2010 Originally published in the New Hampshire Union Leader After months of discussion about the exact size of the historic deficit we face next year, the news is filled suddenly with reports of a surplus. Did something change or are we just in the middle of election season? The short […]
Understanding and Explaining the New Hampshire State Budget
BUDGET, TAXATIONThe slides from Charlie Arlinghaus’s seminar for policymakers on the basics of the state budget, how its organized, where to find information and how to become your own state budget expert.
Libertas Dinner Highlights
PRESS[slideshow_deploy id=’3316′]
NHOpenGovt Lets You Google Your Government
BETTER GOVERNMENT, BUDGETJust click the Quarter to get started! A public database isn’t just a tool for those of us strange enough to want to pore over budget data. It is the sunshine that disinfects the public square. Knowing that every detail is available, accessible, and searchable means there is no chance that any action, any […]
The Fiscal Collapse of a Once Proud State
BUDGET, TAXATIONNot too long ago we believed in balanced budgets. But that’s all changed. Other states made the tough decisions. We did not. Today the State of New Hampshire is just another failed enterprise hoping the federal government will cut them a check before the debt capsizes that ship.
Wishful Thinking Outnumbers Cuts and Tax Increases in New Hampshire Budget Package
BUDGET, TAXATIONBorrowing, transfers, and wishful thinking draw the actual spending cuts and tax increases included in a $295 million budget deal unveiled Tuesday, June 8 at the State House.
House and Senate budget writers have crafted a package that includes nearly $72 million in spending cuts, which doesn’t include an $18.5 million increase in HHS spending. It also contains $4.99 million in tax increases, $51.21 in lapses and transfer among state agencies, $65 million in borrowing, and $112.87 million in speculative revenues that may never be realized.
Mortgaging the Future Can New Hampshire Borrow its way to a Balanced Budget?
BUDGET, TAXATIONMeasuring The Revenue Shortfall Revenue on track to fall $84.8 million short in first half of budget
BUDGET, TAXATIONSummary: Using a historical projection model, state revenues can be projected to fall $84.8 million short of the amount budgeted to balance spending in the first year of the two-year budget. Revenues in the second year of the budget are built off the first year’s projection plus 2.2% growth over that base. At that rate of growth, revenues would be an additional $86 million out of balance in the second of the two budget years. The combined revenue shortfall of $171 million is the largest component of a budget deficit greater than $250 million that legislators must resolve to balance the state’s finances.
Why do gas prices spike in the Spring?
TRANSPORTATIONAs noted in last post, gas prices always spike seem to spike in the spring. Why is that?
Well, there are several reasons. The first are the basic laws of supply and demand. With nicer weather, people tend to drive more, increasing the demand and thus the price.
The second is what is called the Seasonal Gas Transition. Taking effect in 1995, amendments to the Clean Air Act of 1990 mandated a different formulation of gasoline for the summer months, colloquially known as the ‘summer blend’ to cut down on pollution. Changing output from summer to winter blends of fuel is not as easy as flipping a switch. Rather, the refinery must often shut down completely in order make the change over.
In addition, the summer blend mandates a lower percentage of Butane in gasoline for environmental reasons. The Butane is replace with more expensive ingredients, further boosting the price.
The summer blend also reduces the mileage per gallon, further increasing demand on gas to travel the same distance.
Perhaps most troubling is that different areas have different blend requirements, meaning that surplus fuel in one area can not be easily shipped to a deficit area, resulting in potential large regional price differences and giving oil companies distorted market power than they otherwise would have. This could be easily solved by doing away with these variations entirely or at the very least parring them down to a more reasonable number.
The actual cost of the summer blend is difficult to calculate and as a result, there are a wide range of opinions as to the exact cost. Estimates range from $.01 to $.15 per gallon.
Gas Prices in NH: Top off now
TRANSPORTATIONAs reported by WMUR this morning, gas prices have slightly increased over the past week, after a slight dip.
Looking at data from GasBuddy.com we see some interesting historical trends when it comes to March gas prices.
March historically sees a plateauing in gas prices, followed by a spike that peaks roughly around Memorial Day. The extent of the peaks vary from year to year, over the past 6 years as historical data, with anomalous years removed, NH typically sees a 17% jump in prices.
That being said, there is only so much room for prices to go up. Last year we saw only a 13% run up from a price level of about $3.50/gal, where prices rose right up against the $4/gal mark. This year we are starting at a base of roughly $3.65/gal, and a 13% increase would mean about $4.11/gal.
Conventional wisdom holds that $4.00/gal is the psychological point in which people begin to change their driving habits and most industry experts contend that the oil companies, faced with the loss of sales, will try to keep it under $4.00 a gallon. However there is only so much wiggle room before they would have to sell gas at a loss to keep it at or below $4.00/gal.
On a side note, if you haven’t discovered Gasbuddy.com yet, it is certainly worth a look. Beyond historical data, their primary purpose is to provide real time gas prices. Using something akin to a Wikipedia model, gas prices are updated by users punching in data from their local gas stations. Though these days gas prices can change several times a day, the time of the last update is noted which gives the reader an idea of how the accurate that figure is at that particular moment in time. For example, if the last update is 2 hours old, chances are it is right on the mark, if it is 18 hours old, maybe not. Data older than 36 hours is removed from the list.
It is a great tool if you are looking for the best price on gas whether it be around town, somewhere along your commute or on a trip.
Long story short, gas prices are only going to go up (baring some unforeseen event), so fill up now.
-Josh